Publications

This study focuses on the development, implementation and application of a spatial-based decision support tool—named r.forcircular—aimed at quantifying both the level of the circular bioeconomy and the financial performance in the forest-based sector. The methodology merges a set of indicators based on the 4R framework (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle, Recover) of circular economy in a multicriteria approach. Outputs are computed for different scenarios and are calibrated based on variations in the selling price of raw materials and on higher mechanisation of production process phases (felling, processing, extraction and chipping of wood residues). The increase in wood assortment value leads to an improvement in the sustainability of the forest-wood supply chain in circular bioeconomy and financial terms. The application of a higher level of mechanisation seems to have conflicting results compared to those of other scenarios. The r.forcircular model was tested in an Italian case study (in the Municipality Union of Valdarno and Valdisieve in the Tuscany region, Italy) with the aim of understanding its applicability and replicability in other contexts. The results of the test showed that, in the study area, superior outcomes were observed for high forests than for coppices due to the low value of wood products obtainable from coppices. © 2022, The Author(s).

The objectives of this study were to evaluate and exemplify the potential utility of a climate-sensitive modular-based structural stand density management model (SSDMM) developed for red pine (Pinus resinosa Aiton) in crop planning decision making. Firstly, the model’s predictive ability was assessed using a retrospective validation approach without consideration of climate change effects. Although limited in scope and applicability, the preliminary results revealed that the magnitude of the mean prediction error for the principal determinates governing stand development did not exceed ±15%. Secondly, the potential utility of the model was illustrated within a spatial-based forest management planning context for a range of climate change scenarios. These exemplifications included three conventional crop plan simulations (initial spacing (IS), IS plus one commercial thinning (CT) treatment, and IS plus two CTs) developing under three climate change scenarios (1971–2000 climate norms, and 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways) over 75-year rotations (2022–2097) at three geographically diverse locales (north-eastern (Kirkland Lake), north-central (Thessalon), and north-western (Thunder Bay) Ontario, Canada). Resultant developmental indices and (or) productivity metrics were contrasted in terms of (1) regional-specific differences in temporal stand dynamical patterns and rotational yields with increasing climatic change severity, and (2) silvicultural effectiveness of the crop plans within and across locales for each climate change scenario. Climate-wise, although the results revealed marginal regional differences across a multitude of rotational outcome metrics, declines in mean tree size and merchantable volume productivity, and most importantly utility pole production within unthinned plantations, were among the most consequential and consistent negative outcomes associated with climate-induced site productivity declines. Silviculturally, crop plans that included thinning treatments relative to their counterparts that did not, yielded trees of greater mean size and were able to maintain utility pole production status while not achieving similar levels of site occupancy or volumetric productivity. Management-wise, maintenance of pole production status along with concurrent increases in fiscal worth even in light of climate change outweighed the marginal decline in volumetric productivity that was associated with the thinning regimes. In summary, the validation results provided a measure of predictive performance relative to the underlying calibration data set whereas the exemplifications illustrated the model’s potential operational utility in spatial-based forest management planning. For managers aspiring to maintain the historical productivity legacy of red pine through optimal density management decision making while acknowledging prediction uncertainty when forecasting stand development trajectories under climate change, the SSDMM provides an optional decision-support tool for designing climate-smart crop plans during the Anthropocene. © 2022 by the author.

With 120 million hectares of forest area, Indonesia has the third largest area of biodiversity-rich tropical forests in the world, and it is well-known as a mega-biodiversity country. However, in 2020, only 70 percent of this area remained forested. The government has consistently undertaken corrective actions to achieve Sustainable Development Goal targets, with a special focus on Goals #1 (no poverty), #2 (zero hunger), #3 (good health and well-being), #7 (affordable and clean energy), #8 (decent work and economic growth), #13 (climate action), and #15 (life on land). Good environmental governance is a core concept in Indonesia’s forest management and includes mainstreaming ecosystem services as a framework for sustainable forest management. This paper analyzes efforts to mainstream Indonesia’s remaining forest ecosystem services. We review the state of Indonesia’s forests in relation to deforestation dynamics, climate change, and ecosystem service potential and options and provide recommendations for mainstreaming strategies regarding aspects of policy, planning, and implementation, as well as the process of the articulation of ecosystem services and their alternative funding. © 2022 by the authors.

In the United Nations 2021–2030 ecosystem restoration programme, coastal ecosystems such as mangroves are listed as a priority for biodiversity restoration. Therefore, understanding mangrove species diversity and changes over time are essential to predict ecosystem health, viability and resilience to changing climatic and human pressures. However, when considering future conservation ambitions and policies for mangroves, it is also crucial to understand the effects of conservation interventions. To address these concerns, we needed to develop reliable inventory methods for mangrove forests, spatialised predictions of biodiversity and good practices for using Earth observation data. In this study, we investigated the gaps in knowledge concerning the spatial organisation, intertidal zones and the recent history of mangroves in Thailand’s Trat province. We investigated the impacts on forest diversification of environmental parameters, such as topography, and of human interventions such as stand rehabilitation or plantations. We were able to integrate historical multisatellite data, current ecological data and microtopographic measurements to establish the status and describe the spatial organisation of the mangrove forests in the province of Trat. Using the method described in this study, we were able to overcome the technical limitations of monitoring protocols and thus develop a powerful decision-support system to assess the recovery period of mangrove forests, their structural growth and the species composition of plantations and natural native stands over three decades. Our study also identifies the main influencing factors that compromise the quality of Earth observation data, and proposes specific best practices for monitoring mangrove ecosystems. In addition, we developed the ARMA tool (Automatic Regrowth Monitoring Algorithm) and summarized functional indicators (secondary succession) by type of stand. ARMA can identify the years of planting, recovery period, age and structural development of rehabilitated mangroves compared to adjacent natural and naturally regenerating mangroves. We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to research on mangrove biodiversity, as it has several potential applications for forest restoration planning and management. It can therefore be a useful tool to measure and assess biodiversity and thereby improve ecosystem-based mangrove forest management. © 2022, Bois et Forêts des Tropiques.

Numerous forests in the eastern United States have been degraded due to past exploitative timber harvesting known as high grading. High graded forest stands may not improve without active rehabilitation and may require targeted silvicultural treatments. This study focuses on high graded mixed-oak (mixed-Quercus spp.) stands and aims to develop a model that can identify past high grading and to determine modifications that may improve forest management recommendations provided by the prominent decision support tool, SILVAH. We present a model that uses standard forest inventory measurements and does not require knowledge of preharvest stand conditions to predict with moderate to high accuracy whether a stand was high graded, which could be particularly useful for nonindustrial private forests. Results indicate that modifications to SILVAH may be necessary to improve its utility for prescribing silvicultural treatments in high graded stands. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of American Foresters. All rights reserved.

Growth models of uneven-aged forests on the diameter class level can support silvicultural decision making. Machine learning brings added value to the modeling of dynamics at the stand or individual tree level based on data from permanent plots. The objective of this study is to explore the potential of machine learning for modeling growth dynamics in uneven-aged forests at the diameter class level based on inventory data from practice. Two main modeling approaches are conducted and compared: (i) fine-tuned linear models differentiated per diameter class, (ii) an artificial neural network (multilayer perceptron) trained on all diameter classes. The models are trained on the inventory data of the Canton of Neuchâtel (Switzerland), which are area-wide data without individual tree-level growth monitoring. Both approaches produce convincing results for predicting future diameter distributions. The linear models perform better at the individual diameter class level with test R2 typically between 50% and 70% for predicting increments in the numbers of stems at the diameter class level. From a methodological perspective, the multilayer perceptron implementation is much simpler than the fine-tuning of linear models. The linear models developed in this study achieve sufficient performance for practical decision support. © 2022 by the author.

The increasing demand for wood, fiber, and pulp, coupled with efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, has placed immense importance on the development of forest plantations. The rapidly growing human population faces shortages of food, particularly in the developing world where agricultural productivity is generally low. The taungya system, an age-old agroforestry practice involving the intercropping of crops with trees on the same unit of land, is opined as a win-win strategy to meet the need for wood products and food at the same time. In recent years, the taungya system has gained increasing attention from large forest companies as a tool and an opportunity to contribute to the social well-being of the local community. However, the effects of intercropping on the tree component are largely unexplored. Thus, this study was conducted to examine whether intercropping after 2 and 7 years has an effect on the root system of trees, thereby generating knowledge that supports evidence-based plantation management decisions involving the taungya system. To characterize the root system architecture, trenches were made on six young trees in both a pure Eucalyptus camaldulensis monoculture and intercropped stands (1111 trees/ha in both stands). To quantitatively estimate root biomass, a total of 324 soil cores (6 stands × 6 trees × 3 distances × 3 soil depths) were collected, and roots were sorted and dried to constant mass in an oven at 60 °C for 48 h. The root dry mass data were subjected to analysis of variance to examine the significant effects of intercropping, spacing, and stand age. The results show that the root system of E. camaldulensis was mainly confined to shallow depth but well elongated horizontally in both pure and intercropped stands with 4–6 thick lateral roots. The intercropping of rice/cassava with eucalypt had no effect on the total root dry mass of the tree component (p > 0.05) irrespective of the plantation spacing (5 m × 2 m or 9 m × 1 m); however, root biomass decreased with increasing horizontal distance from the tree base and in deeper soil layers, particularly for trees in young stands. The effects of spacing between trees, wide (5 m × 2 m) versus narrow (9 m × 1 m), on root dry mass were dependent on the horizontal and vertical distribution of the root system, and root biomass appeared to be higher at 40 cm soil depth for the stand with wide spacing between trees than for stands with narrow spacing. Root biomass was larger for older rather than younger trees in both monoculture and intercropped stands, suggesting the lack of a carry-over effect of intercropping on root biomass. In conclusion, this study provides evidence in support of intercropping as a win-win strategy to meet the short-term needs of food production while producing wood in the end. As root biomass varies with horizontal distribution, further research is recommended to test buffer zones between trees and crops other than 1m, which is currently used. © 2022 by the authors.

Understanding forest dynamics under varying management intensification is a crucial step for designing and implementing sustainable forest management scenarios. One way to assess the sustainability is to evaluate the long-term supply of ecosystem services (ES) with some performance indicators. This research focuses on exploring the effects of management intensification on several ESs such as habitat for biodiversity conservation, wood production, carbon stock, cultural values, water provision and soil protection. Forest development was simulated over time with the ETCAP forest management decision support system (DSS) to investigate the effects of intensified forest management activities, representing different treatment rates, rotation periods and afforestation levels, on the selected ecosystem services. Hamidiye forest planning unit was used as a case study area with 19,009 ha forests in southeastern Turkey. The management scenarios with intensified forest interventions such as high rate of thinning and afforestation areas with medium rotation ages led to increased harvest level, carbon storage, soil protection, deadwood and forest area, and reductions in largest stand volume, understory, basal area, ground water and cultural values. The same intensified scenarios with short rotation ages, however, resulted in again higher harvest levels, yet a more regulated forest structure due mainly to the increasing afforestation areas and productivity. Extension of rotation periods, however, appear to have marginal impact on carbon storage, positive effect on soil protection and significant effect on harvest level. Scenarios with low intensified interventions only resulted in high values of biodiversity conservation and cultural values. Intensive treatments and larger afforestation areas had significant impact on the overall results. Overall, the analysis of the modeling approach with varying management scenarios led to better and wider understanding of forest development over time by allowing the assessment of the impacts of management interventions on the sustainable supply of the ecosystem services that highly depend on the afforestation level, thinning rate and rotation period. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.

Pre-commercial thinning (PCT) is a common measure in Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) stands but the profitability of doing PCT and timing of PCT has not been fully investigated over a full rotation. Further, limited knowledge is available for mixed forest management compared to monocultures. In this study, different PCT strategies were tested to investigate the effect of PCT and timing of PCT on the production and profitability of Norway spruce monocultures and mixed Norway spruce–birch stands. A forest decision support system was used to simulate stand development during the whole rotation. Our study findings show that there is a positive effect of PCT on Norway spruce plantations’ long-term profitability but that the timing of PCT has little effect on profitability. However, site variation might influence the effect of PCT timing on the profitability of Norway spruce stands. Moreover, we also found that retaining 1000 Norway spruce ha−1 and 1000 birch ha−1 after PCT supports a mixture of Norway spruce and birch over a full rotation, with little or no economic loss compared to pure Norway spruce stands. Therefore, such a mixture can lead to profitable production while still providing other ecosystem services. © 2022 by the authors.

The Philippines’ vulnerability to climate change necessitates the adoption of strategies to strengthen the most vulnerable sectors and diminish severe climate change impacts in the future. This study assessed the implications of recent findings of climate change science on the country’s Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) 10 priority programs through a landscape and ecosystem-based approach. The assessment was done by defining the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems through a comprehensive review of relevant literature at the global to national scale, as well as the development of a framework for assessing the climate responsiveness of programs. Using a set of 12 criteria for climate responsiveness and a four-point rating scale (0/none to 3/high), the programs were assessed through a literature and document review, conduct of a series of workshops, and interviews and self-rating surveys with key actors, such as officers of the divisions and attached agencies of DENR. Results of the assessment showed that most of DENR’s programs were found to have low ratings in terms of flexibility, a long-term scope of impacts, the ability to address interconnected risks and vulnerabilities, the ability to stimulate migration to green development pathways, and the promotion of incremental and transformational adaptation. To improve the ratings, it is recommended that decision support systems be developed, and plans and programs be integrated and harmonized through multi-agency/multi-stakeholder collaboration and a robust system for developing climate-responsive policies – including the National Land Use Act, Sustainable Forest Management, Payment for Environmental Services, and the Carbon Offset Law. © 2022, Department of Science and Technology. All rights reserved.