IUFRO Risk Analysis

The IUFRO Risk Analysis conference PERCEPTION ==> PREDICTION ==> ACTION: Managing risk in uncertain times is hosted by the Institute of Forestry, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Germany from the 21-23 April, 2016.

Forest management planning and decision making have been able, in the past, to give only slight regard to risk and uncertainty. A substantial body of knowledge has been derived from empirical evidence regarding the significant factors that are important in achieving desired ecosystem goods and services; and the levels of uncertainty in this knowledge were considered sufficiently small and static. This includes knowledge of post-disturbance regeneration, post-establishment succession and silvics, and the frequency and impact of natural disturbances.

Today, our climate is changing at an unprecedented rate, and this changing climate is dramatically increasing our level of uncertainty regarding the frequency and impacts of future natural disturbances, and the post-disturbance (natural or anthropogenic) silvics that will determine the delivery of ecosystem goods and services. The combination of our perception of climate change—which future climate scenario is the most probable?—and our uncertain predictions of natural disturbances and silvics under any given climate scenario, influence the decision-making processes that form the management actions whose objective is the delivery of prescribed ecosystem goods and services.

This conference will bring together leading experts from the international scientific community to discuss the risks posed to the forest resource by our changing climate, how these risks are perceived and predicted in the forest science and management community, and how risk and uncertainty can be incorporated in the decision-making process to increase the likelihood that the future realized ecosystem services match our stated goals.

Visit the Risk Analysis website (http://riskanalysis-iufro.org/) to see details of the meeting.

Abstract submission and conference registration is now open at our conference admin. website
(https://www.conftool.net/riskanalysis2016/).