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== General System description == System name: Agro-forestry decision support system Acronym: AGfLOR === Brief overview === AGfLOR is a tool to help assess impacts of policy changes on regional land use patterns [[Category:2008]] [[Category:Portuguese DSS]] [[Category:Regional level]] [[Category:Scenario analysis]] [[Category:Visual Basic]] [[Category:Linear programming]] [[Category:Positive mathematical programming]] [[Category:Non-linear programming]] [[Category:Simulated annealing]] [[Category:Help documents]] [[Image:agflorpresentation.gif |thumb|400px| AGfLOR menu options and logo]] [[Image:agflor study area.gif |thumb|400px| AGfLOR study area (from <ref>Borges P.J., Fragoso R., Garcia-Gonzalo J., Borges J. G., Marques S. and Lucas, M.R. 2009. Assessing impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on regional land use patterns with a decision support system. An application in Southern Portugal. Forest Policy and Economics, doi: 10.1016/ j.forpol.2009.09.002 </ref>]] __TOC__ === Scope of the system === The tool in its current version provides information to assess impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on regional land use patterns in Southern Portugal. === System origin === The system was developed in 2007/2008 by the Centre of Forest Studies of Instituto Superior of Agonomia (CEF/ISA) of the Technical University of Lisbon in the framework of Project INTERREG IIIA “Desarrollo de un sistema de información para la gestión ambiental y económica del ecosistema dehesa/montado en Extremadura y Alentejo. 2ª Fase” AGfLOR is used by the Portuguese Ministry of Agriculture Regional Office of Alentejo (DRAPAL) to assess impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on agricultural and forestry activities and on regional land use patterns over an area extending over 2 million ha. === Support for specific issues === * The system was designed so that it might support the assessment of policy alternatives on agricultural and forestry activities and on regional land use patterns. Its current implementation provides information about impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on forestry, agriculture (e.g. cereals, horticulture, fruit culture fruit trees, vineyards, olive trees, permanent pastures, forage, set-aside, fallow), livestock and agro-forestry activities. Namely, it provides information about changes in area occupied by each activity, and in physical production and revenues resulting from each activity. * The user may specify the policy changes, product prices and supply elasticity, and subsidies for each agroforestry and livestock activity to assess its impacts on regional land use patterns. === Support for specific thematic areas of a problem type === * Development choices / land use zoning * Policy/intervention alternatives * Sustainability impact assessment (SIA) * Assessment of land use patterns * impacts of subsidies === Capability to support decision making phases === * Intelligence The GUI helps the user to specify and input policy changes, product prices and supply elasticity, and subsidies for each agroforestry and livestock activity. * Design The GUI provides guidance to define simulated annealing parameters. * Choice The LP solver and the simulated annealing algorithm and the GUI help select policies. * Monitor No support is provided. == Data and data models == === Typical spatial extent of application === 1.The system can address both the national and international policy contexts. 2.The system uses GIS information, economic data (prices, subsides, elasticity for each agro-forestry and livestock activities) and data on policy changes. 3.The data are all entered through the GUI user interface. The system may be used both for regional analysis. It may address both national and international policy contexts === Forest data input === The system uses gis information (vectorial) to display farm-type regional units. It further uses economic data (e.g. prices, supply elasticity, subsidies) [[Image: aglor display.gif |thumb|400px| Displaying base scenario information]] === Type of information input from user (via GUI) === The uses inputs data on policy changes, product prices and supply elasticity, and subsidies for each agroforestry and livestock activity. [[Image:agflor input.gif |thumb|400px| AGfLOR input interface (from <ref>Borges P.J., Fragoso R., Garcia-Gonzalo J., Borges J. G., Marques S. and Lucas, M.R. 2009. Assessing impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on regional land use patterns with a decision support system. An application in Southern Portugal. Forest Policy and Economics, doi: 10.1016/ j.forpol.2009.09.002 </ref>]] == Models == A Positive Mathematical Programming model is used to calibrate mathematical programming models according to observed behaviours during a reference period. It aims to assess economic, technical and institutional scenarios associated with changes in policies, relative prices, technologies and availability of inputs. == Decision Support == === Definition of management interventions === Not applicable === Typical temporal scale of application === The system addresses mostly strategic policy issues === Types of decisions supported === *Management level **strategic decisions * planning decisions **command decisions **control decisions ** coordination decisions *decision making situation **unilateral ** collegial === Decision-making processes and models === AGfLOR uses a linear programming model and a simulated annealing meta-heuristic. == Output == === Types of outputs === Results are reported in tables and in maps. [[Image:agflor res.gif |thumb|400px| AGfLOR solution report interface (from <ref>Borges P.J., Fragoso R., Garcia-Gonzalo J., Borges J. G., Marques S. and Lucas, M.R. 2009. Assessing impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on regional land use patterns with a decision support system. An application in Southern Portugal. Forest Policy and Economics, doi: 10.1016/ j.forpol.2009.09.002 </ref>]] === Spatial analysis capabilities === The system has spatial reporting capabilities. Yet it does not include spatial analysis functionalities. It provides standard data import/export formats (GIS, spreadsheet, relational database) === Abilities to address interdisciplinary, multi-scaled, and political issues === The system takes as inputs biophysical, economic and policy information. == System == === System requirements === * Hardware requirements: 2 GHz Pentium IV, 1024 Mb of RAM, 250 Mb of hard disk, CD-ROM reader * Operating Systems: Windows 2000, Windows XP or Windows Vista * Other software needed: the user does not need to acquire additional software. * Development status: completed === Architecture and major DSS components === * AGfLOR is a desktop application with a modular structure. It was developed with software Ms VB.NET. * The system includes a MS Access 2003 relational database (BD_INTERREG_AGRÍCOLA), Ms Excel 2003 spreadsheets, an LP matrix generator, a simulated annealing module and a report generator. It further includes freeware (GIS and LP solver). A GUI ties all modules together to provide the user-schema. [[Image:agflor modules.gif |thumb|400px| AGfLOR architecture (from <ref>Borges P.J., Fragoso R., Garcia-Gonzalo J., Borges J. G., Marques S. and Lucas, M.R. 2009. Assessing impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on regional land use patterns with a decision support system. An application in Southern Portugal. Forest Policy and Economics, doi: 10.1016/ j.forpol.2009.09.002 </ref>]] === Usage === Government use (Portuguese Ministry of Agriculture Regional Office of Alentejo (DRAPAL)) === Computational limitations === Run time is impacted mostly by the number of farm types, agroforestry activities and simulated annealing parameters. === User interface === AGfLOR has a standard Windows GUI. Thoughtful use of the system requires some forest management planning and agricultural economics background. === Documentation and support === The graphical user interface provides access to the AGfLOR users' manual: Borges, P., J. G. Borges e S. Marques. 2007, Manual de Utilização Sistema de Apoio à Decisão AGfLOR Documento Técnico n.º 07/07, Grupo de Economia e Gestão dos Recursos Naturais, Lisboa , Portugal === Installation === Simple Windows guided installation. ==References== ===Cited references=== <references/>
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